We could have a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College on Election Day, and if Colorado voters approve proportionate distribution of its Electoral Votes, Kerry could get 4 of Colorado's 9 votes to win 273-265.
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CAMPAIGN JOURNAL
By ALBERT R. HUNT
Colorado is This Year's
Unlikeliest of Swing States
Ballot Measure on Proportional Voting
Intensifies Campaigning in the State
October 7, 2004
Here is a scenario that would make Florida and the 2000 election aftermath look like a Junior League picnic. On Nov. 2, in a redux of four years earlier, Sen. Kerry narrowly wins the popular vote and picks up two small states, New Hampshire and Nevada.
That adds up to a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. Except Colorado, which George Bush has won -- in this hypothetical scenario -- 52% to 44%. But those Rocky Mountain voters also approved an initiative to allocate the state's nine electoral votes proportional to the vote each candidate receives. That means the Democratic nominee gets four more electors and wins the election.
Predictably, the Republicans immediately go to court contending this action can't apply to the 2004 election. It goes to the Supreme Court, which rules 5-to-4 …
Colorado might be the most purple of the states wavering between the red and blue columns this election year. It is one of a dozen states that both sides genuinely believe they have at shot at capturing, and the only one that, depending on the outcome of Amendment 36, might allocate its votes proportionally.
Colorado's Republican Gov. Bill Owens, who is leading the fight against the initiative, said in an interview that if it carries "it will make Florida look like a simple county court issue." The Constitution, he notes, gives the right to select presidential electors to the state legislatures. The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled initiatives are an extension of the legislature, but, the governor notes, many legal scholars disagree. Thus, if it passes, an appeal is a certainty.
Moreover, he contends, it would weaken the state's clout. With its current nine electoral voters, one candidate almost always would win five and the other four, meaning the battle was for one elector. "This is unilateral disarmament and that would hurt us."
The initiative is leading in polls today, but the governor still thinks there is a good chance to defeat it. Leading newspaper editorials, liberals as well as conservatives, have opposed it, he notes.
In general, Bill Owens concurs that Colorado is a true battleground state: "The president was up five or six, and they have probably narrowed it some over the last week." In the end, he predicts, "Colorado will be a red state."
Sue Casey, who runs Colorado for Kerry-Edwards, says they are ignoring Amendment 36, initially funded by some Colorado Democrats: "We're not worrying about it; it's not in our dialogue."
In an interview, she explains the campaign genuinely believes Colorado is winnable: "This is supposed to be a Bush state, and we're running even now." Sen. Kerry has visited Colorado five times since June -- "no one can remember any presidential candidate coming more than twice before," says Ms. Casey.
The Democratic nominee is banking on a few other assists. He was born in Colorado -- at an Army medical hospital -- and spent more than two days in the state preparing for Friday's debate in St. Louis. That is important in a state not used to much [national] political attention," Ms. Casey says.
Most polls have indicated President Bush has a small advantage in Colorado. But pollster John Zogby's latest battleground-state survey1 for The Wall Street Journal Online shows Sen. Kerry with a narrow, one-point lead.
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